What will really happen when the two combined car in Prototype race together for the first time, I think I have an idea...

When it was first announced and later confirmed Daytona Prototypes would be upgraded to match the pace of the ACO spec P2 cars, I knew right away that a P2 car will be the one to have and here's why.

1.  Scott Pruett in an interview with Gordon Kirby on his website confirmed what I think will happen. The upgrades to the Daytona Prototypes means these cars will enter uncharted waters with unknown impacts on reliability. With limited testing time between when the new aerodynamic parts (tunnel + rear diffuser) being delivered and all the upgrades being added to the cars (paddle shift, carbon brakes, different dampers and spring rates to deal with the added downforce, etc) means many teams will suffer at Daytona with balance problems and parts failure.
2.  The P2 cars are fully sorted. The only changes are the mandated aero package for Daytona, Sebring and IMS which reduces overall downforce to match it closer to the DP with the changes. While teams may appear to lose a performance advantage will be able to gain some of that back. Under ACO rules, as long as a car manufacturer releases new body kit at the start of the season, updates are allowed once per season. For HPD teams, that means Wirth Engineering will go back to its computers and try to recover some of that lost downforce. Because the drivelines are pretty much bulletproof, I don't expect many failures even if these cars have never run on the Daytona banked oval before.

  By the time the checkered flag drops on the new era Rolex 24, I think you'll find a P2 in the winners circle, barring anything like accidents of course. Besides Daytona, the only other place where P2 cars have no data is IMS (Indy). If they a P2 car can finish on the podium at Daytona, again at Sebring and again at Petit; it doesn't even have to worry about finishing on the podium at IMS, the North American Endurance Title would be a P2 victory.

 This is with the on-going BoP (Balance of Adjustment) that's going to be made throughout the season. It will be a cat and mouse game, this is where having professional drivers will be important. Wirth Engineering has a simulator located at their design studio where once some data is available from this months BoP test at Daytona where Extremespeed will be attending, they will be able to upload the track data, put a driver in it say Guy Cosmo who has tons of tire testing under his belt and come up with a predictive lap time they could run to win the race with more consistent driving, better pit stops and better fuel economy than outright speed since the extra power DP's have automatically means less mileage.

 In other words the HPD's won't have to dominate qualifying or the race to win it.

 I expect by Long Beach; the first sprint race of the season, DP teams will screaming for competition adjustments. Again with tons of on-track data at Long Beach despite those adjustments I think a P2 car will win again.

 By mid-season however DP's might go on a bit of a streak at places such as Mosport and Road America where handling and horsepower are important. But again at Road America fuel mileage because of the track length and uphill front straight will come into play and could be another P2 victory.

 I think its safe to assume that a P2 will end up dominating the first season of the new series and it will be interesting to see what the deeper pocketed teams do either at the end of the year or mid-season. Both Starworks and Ganassi made engine switches just beyond the midpoint in the season last year. Its totally possible that a team like Ganassi might park his converted DP's in favor of a P2 car of some description, especially if they are in the championship hunt and need to be on equal footing with the P2 cars. They are one of the few teams with very deep pockets and might willing to make the move.

 All this does is make for an exciting and interesting season from the sharp end of the grid to the blunt end.

 I made this post originally before the testing accidents with the upgraded DP cars. Since that point however potential P2 teams like Greaves and Pecom have dropped their plans to run the Tudor Championship.

 However my original thought still stands by Petit Le Mans, I predict all Extreme speed will have to do is start the race and they'll win the title. This will be after a season of fist waving, sh*t talk and BoP.

 If anything it will be interesting won't it?

TUCSS Oversubscribed? North American Endurance Championship the Alternative? Update!

That seems to be the thinking in Daytona Beach.

 Given all the information I have found, it looks like the 60 car threshold will be met. Currently Daytona has 60 pit stalls on pit lane and 74 garage spaces. 

 According to various sources including Graham Goodwin of Dailysportscar, some European P2 teams may not be extended an invite to the series opening round. The reason given is the expected capacity of GT-D to be about 20 cars, if not more. 

 Right now I count about 54 cars committed to the new series full-time, which is why they went forward with the split races at Long Beach, Detroit and VIR.

 Pickett Racing has yet to confirm but will be staying in the series at least for 2014 and already confirmed Stevenson Motorsports departure.

 That leaves only six spots.

 The only fly in the ointment is the approximate 30% increase in budget needed to run the new 12 race series (11 races for Pro Am classes and 11 races for Pro Classes actually).

 Who will fill those extra spots?

 The likely order is; season entries get priority. Then those entries for the North American Endurance Championship (NEC) and finally the one-off's.

 I mentioned before since the WEC season doesn't start until April 18th at Silverstone, both Daytona and Sebring would be excellent tune ups for the coming season. I believe some teams will skip the ELMS all together to run in the much tougher US series.

 Driver Johnny Mowlem on Mid-Week Motorsport said his team, 2013 ELMS GT Champions Ram Racing is looking very hard at the Tudor United Sports Car Championship. They would love to do it, if they can find the budget. Its likely if they don't do the entire series, they may opt for the NEC and Le Mans, which would require shipping the car over twice but overall that is cheaper than a WEC season or full TUSCC campaign.

 Paul Dalla Lana who is unhappy with the way WEC is run generally left his Aston Martin Vantage GTLM car in America after the WEC COTA event (in which the ALMS outdrew WEC much to this dismay of ACO/WEC management), is likely to also run the entire Tudor Championship. 

 AF Corse has said it would like to do the NEC as well.

 Among the Prototypes, I know Murphy, TDS and Greaves are all interested. I believe Greaves will partner with Chris Dyson for a full season, while Dyson Racing sorts out what its long range plans are. Chris has said its unlikely they will buy a new chassis since their budget called for a three year program with their Lola. IE they hadn't planned on buying a new car and don't have the budget for it. At COTA it was mentioned by Rob Dyson that its likely they will develop their own engine for P2 (via AER which they own) but its unlikely to be ready by the start of next year.

 So if you count three prototypes, two extra Ferrari's in GTLM, its likely only one spot left and who that gets that is anybody's guess, but I'll say Dalla Lana and his Aston Martin Vantage.

 *Update #1 

 It seems intentionally (or not) John Dagys has mentioned in his post-race report for the final Petit Le Mans that Scott Tucker had raced for his final victory and championship in the ALMS which we knew was ending but does that mean the 2-time P2 champ, 2-time LMPC champ is considering the world stage (FIA WEC)?

 I wouldn't blame him if he did.... I don't remember where I read it, but it seems Mr. Tucker lobbied for the new merged Prototype class to remain Pro-Am to allow Gentlemen drivers like himself and equalize the competition with that requirement.

 That will not happen in the new series because despite P2 being a Pro Am class in the European Le Mans Series (ELMS or LMS) and World Endurance championship (WEC) it will be fully professional in the US. There will be no more Trueman Award (Grand Am) for best Gentlemen racer (that I know of).

 So for people like him and Tracy Krohn for example, you have a few choices.

•  Prototype Challenge (since he's a previous champion I doubt this, even if he ordered a new cars already)
•  Prototype 2 in WEC/ELMS - More than likely WEC since ELMS is a much weaker series than the ALMS or what the Tudor Championship will be.

 I would mention GT series like Blancpain but I think its obvious he's not interested in running GT cars at this point in his career.

 So my money is on Tucker wanting to continue to drive will go to the WEC next season. The competition depth will be greater than it was this season, so it will be good for his team to move on.

 While I always thought Tucker for next year was a bit of a question mark, I didn't think ordering LMPC cars meant much. It could be just a business opportunity to rent out chassis to drivers since for logistical reasons, he won't using his US based transporters or shops if he races in WEC. It is likely he'll have a satellite base camp in Europe somewhere since the majority of races are in Europe (Silverstone, Spa and Le Mans including Test Day) as are most if not all the teams.

 It could very well be an arrive and drive scenario, stay tuned to see if I'm right.

 *Update #2 

 I've created an editable table to keep track of next year's entries. If you know of any information before I find out (I check around the net daily), feel free to edit the table.

 Here's the link